Monday, November 20, 2006

Fascinating Kennedy DEM results: Gerard's strength in winnable and battleground ridings

Gregory Morrow at www.democraticSPACE.com has done some remarkable analysis of the DEM meeting results, showing how Gerard Kennedy fared especially well on average in the most winnable Liberal ridings, and also the 60 ridings that can be classified as "battleground ridings."

For Mr. Morrow's detailed and skilled analysis can be found on his site, but the gyst of it is this:

Gerard Kennedy is disproportionately electable in areas where we need to hold Liberal support, and where we have the potential to expand it. Essentially, Gerard is especially poised as a candidate to help win us the specific seats needed to win a majority government.

It should also be noted that this analysis was done even before the completion of the results in British Columbia, where Gerard is running a close second. This would certainly generate the potential to boost his proportions in these riding categories even further.

These tables from Morrow illustrate these points very well, showing the difference between the candidates' overall performance and their proportionate showings in the 'winnable' and 'battleground' riding categories: